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Mahesh

19/01/24 06:46 AM IST

China’s population fell for the second year in a row in 2023

In News
  • The year 2023 saw 11.1 million deaths and 9 million births in China, marking the second year in which the country’s total population has reduced.
  • In the same year, India overtook China as the most populous country in the world.
Population trends
  • Since 2016, the Total Fertility Rate or TFR (the number of children a woman, on average, is expected to bear in her lifetime) has been falling in China.
  • Another important concept here is that of replacement rate.
  • It is the number of children a woman is to have, to replace the present generation in the future.
  • A couple having two children would mean maintaining the same level of population in the future as well.
  • China’s TFR, according to its 2020 Census, was 1.3 births per woman — marginally up from the 1.2 in the 2010 and 2000 censuses, but way below the replacement rate of 2.1.
One child policy
  • Introduced in 1980, the One-child policy restricted couples to have only one child, or face harsh penalties.
  • The Communist Party of China, the most powerful entity in the country and one that has been in power since 1949, did so in a bid to accelerate economic growth.
  • Initially, the focus was on the Great Leap Forward (1958-62), a social and economic overhaul programme that was meant to increase production and improve the quality of life for all.
  • However, its radical measures failed to do so and instead led to the deaths of millions through starvation. As the policy was rolled back, population growth bounced back.
  • By the 1970s, several Five-year Plans from the government saw mentions of reducing the birth rate and the concept was widely promoted, even to the point of coercion.
  • Countries such as Japan and South Korea have also flagged falling fertility rates as a cause of concern of late.
Other factors
  • In 2016, the One-child policy officially ended and couples were allowed to have up to two children.
  • This was increased to three children in 2021. However, this has not helped achieve the goals of population growth.
  • As is the case with its two neighbours, China’s demographic trends have in part to do with an increasingly educated population. Women’s education and employment allow them the agency to make choices about their reproductive health.
  • High pressures of modern society, with increasing competition for jobs, is also a factor.
  • People are marrying later and sometimes choosing not to have children. Even those who do often have only one child because of the high cost of educating children in cities in a highly competitive academic environment.
  • An economic slowdown should mean young couples delay having children. The resulting decline in fertility rates eventually pushes the economy’s productivity rates lower.
Impact
  • The working-age population between 15 to 59 years, which is seen as being productive in an economy, has now fallen to 61% of the total population.
  • The proportion of those aged 60 and older has increased.
  • Life expectancy has also increased for both men and women over time as a result of advanced healthcare systems.
  • In the short run, the trend will result in the need for greater investments in elderly care, including palliative care, and hiring more medical professionals and nursing staff.
  • In the longer run, it could lead to greater pressure on the young population to support the ‘dependants’ (those under the age of 15 and over the age of 59).
  • It also comes at a time when China’s overall economic growth is lower than expected and yet to go back to the highs it reached in the 2000s.
Source- Indian Express

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