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Ecology & Environment
Mahesh

18/03/24 12:21 PM IST

IPCC reports

In News
  • In a study published recently, researchers analysed more than 500 future emissions scenarios the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessed in its latest reports.
IPCC assessment reports
  • IPCC reports comprise three Working Group reports: one on physical science, one on climate adaptation, and one on mitigation action.
  • One synthesis report consolidates findings from the three Working Group reports.
  • Then there are thematic special reports.
  • Each report assesses climate-related scientific literature to capture the state of scientific, technical, and socio-economic knowledge on climate change.
  • The IPCC is currently in its Seventh Assessment cycle (AR7)
  • The IPCC uses ‘modelled pathways’ to estimate what it will take to limit the warming of the earth’s surface.
  • Its macroeconomic models can point to future growth levels in terms of GDP; its energy models can project future consumption; vegetation models can examine land-use changes; and earth-system models use the laws of physics to understand how climate evolves.
Findings of the new study
  • They assessed 556 scenarios in IPCC’s AR6 report and found they project that per-capita GDP across Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, West Asia and the rest of Asia, which together constitute 60% of the world’s population, will be below the global average even in 2050.
  • They spotted similar inequities between the Global North and the Global South vis-à-vis the consumption of goods and services and both energy and fossil fuel consumption.
  • The scenarios were also found to project higher carbon sequestration from land-based carbon sinks (like forests) and higher deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies in developing countries compared to developed ones.
  • Thus, poorer countries, they concluded, would bear the burden of both mitigation action and carbon dioxide removal and CCS.
  • Our analysis of the regional trends underlying the global modelled scenarios in the IPCC’s [AR6] indicates that the scenarios disregard the notion of historical responsibility of the Global North.
Importance of Equity
  • The principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities are enshrined in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
  • Article 3 of the Convention states countries “should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.
  • Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof.” These principles recognise that while tackling climate change requires global action, richer countries are better placed to shoulder bigger climate action responsibilities than poorer ones.
  • By viewing climate action solely through the lens of global-level technical and economic feasibility, mitigation pathways modelled using IAMs often run counter to equity principles.
  • Equity in this sense would imply that developed regions need to accelerate towards net negative emissions and make the remaining carbon budget available to other less developed regions.
Source- The Hindu

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