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Ecology & Environment
Mahesh

08/02/24 12:46 PM IST

IPCC work on seventh climate assessment threatened by shorter timelines

In News
  • Established in 1988, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been bringing out climate change assessment reports on a periodic basis.
IPCC sixth report
  • The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) clearly warned that the time to limit the rise of the world’s average surface temperature to 1.5 degrees C from the pre-industrial era – as agreed to in the Paris Agreement – is running out and that we are close to breaching adaptation limits, particularly in developing countries.
  • The AR6 also suggested some options and strategies to slow warming (by cutting down emissions through mitigation), and to adapt and build resilience in natural systems (such as forests and wetlands), in human-made systems (farmland), and in communities that depend on these climate-sensitive systems.
  • After the publication of the AR6 synthesis report, the IPCC initiated its seventh cycle (AR7) by nominating and electing an IPCC Bureau, which represents the developed and developing countries and ensures gender balance (women need to make 40% of the Bureau).
Global Stocktake
  • The central goal of the Paris Agreement is to hold “the increase in the global average [surface] temperature to well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels” and make efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels”.
  • To assess the world’s progress towards this goal, the U.N. FCCC countries conduct a ‘global stocktake’ (GST) once every 5 years.
  • The GST is a mechanism for all stakeholders to measure their collective progress, identify gaps, and chart a better course of climate action, so that together they realise the Paris Agreement goals.
  • The first GST started in 2022 and ended at the 28th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the U.N. FCCC, in December 2023.
  • The first GST text that the member countries agreed to at the COP28 in Dubai last year requests the IPCC to consider ways in which its work can be aligned with subsequent stocktakes, so that it provides relevant and timely information.
  • The second GST is due in 2028 and submissions so far from member countries have requested the IPCC to publish its AR7 assessment reports before the stocktake.
Timeline for reports
  • Several member countries also requested the Bureau to prepare and publish the assessment reports by 2028, to coincide with the GST.
  • Countries expressed that a shortened cycle may compromise the content as not enough new scientific papers may be published in the given window and modelling efforts to understand the changes in climate to the full extent may also remain incomplete.
  • Many member countries also stated that a constrained timeline would be a barrier to engaging with individuals and institutions in under-represented countries as they require more time for pre-scoping exercises, such as surveys and regional or sectoral meetings.
  • A decision on the timeline with respect to the assessment reports is pending and will be taken at the 61st session of the IPCC.
Source- The Hindu

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