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Geography
Pradeep Kumar

20/03/21 10:35 AM IST

Mechanism for Prediction of Rainfall

In news

Rainfall prediction is given in different time scales, i.e. seasonal forecast
  • Seasonal forecast (for the whole season),
  • Extended range forecast (up to four weeks),
  • Short-medium range forecast (up to 7 days)
  • Nowcasts (up to 3 hrs). 
Methods used in forcasting

Global Forecast System (GFS)
  • Since December 2016, IMD is using the Global Forecast System (GFS) and Unified model run at National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (NCMRWF) operationally every day to generate deterministic forecasts at 12 km horizontal resolution in the short to medium range (up to 7 days).
  • The GFS assimilates global conventional atmospheric data as well as the data from satellites and weather radars.
  • There also exists a high resolution meso-scale model with 3 km resolution to provide location specific forecast.
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS)
  • In addition, a high resolution (12 km grid scale) state of the art Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) namely Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) and Unified model Ensemble Prediction System (UMEPS) was commissioned on 01 June 2018 for generating operational probabilistic weather forecasts for 10 days.
  • The GEPS has enhanced the weather information being provided by the current models by quantifying the uncertainties in the weather forecasts.
Significance

All these initiatives have helped to improve the skill of monsoon rainfall forecasts over the country. 

Source: PIB

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