Why US had imposed sanctions on North Korea?

These cruise missiles don’t come under UNSC sanctions that were placed on the DPRK in an attempt to curb its nuclear development programme, said Dr Jagannath Panda. It is also more indication that despite the enforcement of these sanctions, the country has been consistently developing its nuclear programme, much to the consternation of its neighbours- South Korea, Japan, China- and the US.

 

“We need to see how this missile test will increase or amplify the nuclear capability of North Korea and this test definitely signals progress.

This test has to be seen in the current context when the Americans have withdrawn their troops from Afghanistan and they are trying to reassess regional security issues. So the North Koreans want to emphasise they are a critical component of the US’s regional security concerns,” said Dr. Panda.

 

A Reuters report quoted the US military’s Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) saying it was aware of the test and was coordinating with its allies and partners. “This activity highlights (North Korea’s) continuing focus on developing its military program and the threats that it poses to its neighbours and the international community.

When tension started between US, South Korea and North Korea?

In 2017, North Korea was celebrating the 105th birth anniversary of its founder Kim II Sung and hence it wanted to carry out nuclear and missile tests. The expectations of such tests created ripples in both South Korea and Japan apart from causing concern in the USA.

 

The USA needs to realize that intimidation will not work as North Korea is a nuclear power (and that too with long-range ballistic missile capabilities) and has the capability to inflict considerable damage on the US, South Korea and Japan. Currently, both Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump are unpredictable leaders with a strong proclivity to run personalised foreign policy without professional inputs. In such a situation, the chances of rash decisions increase. But what is commendable is that both the leaders have sat down to talk with each other and June 12 summit in Singapore happened even after witnessing many dramatic twists and turns.

In April 2017, the US President Donald Trump sought help of the Chinese President Xi Jinping in resolving the North Korean crisis. Xi Jinping responded positively but also tactfully hinted towards his limitations in dealing with such a complex problem.

 

The expectation that China will induce North Korea to climb down completely in reverence to the wishes of the US and the Trump administration (giving a major triumph to them in the domain of foreign policy) is very unrealistic. This is so because of three reasons:

 

• Firstly, it is in China s interest to keep the issue alive. The unresolved North Korean issue indirectly raises diplomatic weight of China as the US, Japan, and South Korea are compelled to seek its assistance from time to time in order to defuse the crisis. North Korea s most important external dealings are with China and so China has significant leverage with the regime in North Korea.
• Secondly, China is also afraid of the dire consequences of regime collapse in North Korea leading to an exodus to China with all the attendant problems. Hence, China is committed to protect the North Korean regime.
• Thirdly, the Korean unification with presence of the US troops in the Korean peninsula is not perceived to be in China s interest in its strategic calculations are concerned. Hence, it can be logically deduced that China may try to defuse the crisis but will not like a permanent solution that denuclearizes North Korea.

Where the role of DPRK came in building nuclear missiles?

The DPRK has an active nuclear weapons program and tested nuclear explosive devices in 2006, 2009, 2013, and twice in 2016. It is also capable of enriching uranium and producing weapons-grade plutonium. North Korea deploys short- and medium-range ballistic missiles and successfully launched long-range rockets in 2012 and 2016. Pyongyang unilaterally withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in January 2003 and is not a party to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) or a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). The DPRK is not a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), and is believed to possess a large chemical weapons program. North Korea is a party to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) and Geneva Protocol, but is suspected of maintaining an offensive weapons program in defiance of the BTWC. North Korea's interest in a nuclear weapons program dates to the end of World War II. Since then, Pyongyang developed a nuclear fuel cycle capability and has both plutonium and enriched uranium programs capable of producing fissile material. North Korea declared it had roughly 38.5 kg of weapons-grade plutonium extracted from spent fuel rods in May 2008, however external estimates have varied. The Six-Party Talks between North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia, and the United States began in 2003 with the goal of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. However, these talks have been suspended since April 2009. Initial uncertainties about North Korea's nuclear program after the death of Kim Jong II were tempered when Pyongyang agreed to suspend nuclear tests, uranium enrichment, and long-range missile tests in exchange for food aid from the U.S. on February 29, 2012. However, after a dispute with the United States over the launch of a rocket in April 2012, North Korea declared the agreement void, and conducted a nuclear test in February 2013. In April 2013, North Korean state media announced that Pyongyang would restart all nuclear facilities at Yongbyon, including its 5MW graphite-moderated reactor, and uranium enrichment plant. By August 2013, satellite imagery confirmed steam venting from the 5MW reactor's turbine and generator building. The reactor is capable of producing 6 kg of plutonium a year, however, it is not clear how the modified cooling system, and repeated shutdowns will affect production. In September 2015, however, state media announced that all nuclear facilities were in normal operation with ongoing missions to improve the “quality and quantity” of the country’s nuclear stockpile. Kim Jong Un also claimed to have thermonuclear capabilities during his December 2015 visit to the Pyongchon Revolutionary Site. On January 6, 2016 North Korea conducted a fourth nuclear test. Despite the test, and subsequent claim it was a hydrogen bomb, experts continue to doubt North Korea’s thermonuclear capabilities. The test prompted widespread international condemnation. Even China, a traditional ally of the regime, endorsed a UN resolution to apply further sanctions against North Korea. On September 9, 2016, the anniversary of the founding of North Korea, the U.S. Geological Survey detected a 5.3 magnitude earthquake at North Korea's nuclear testing site. North Korea quickly confirmed it had carried out a 5th nuclear test in a defiant statement. The test drew sharp international condemnation. China, again, joined in condemning the test and urged the regime to refrain from provocative actions. North Korea on March, 2017 launched four ballistic missiles from a region near North Korea's border with China.

Who is Kim-Jong-Un?

Kim Jong-un (the current supreme leader of North Korea) is actually the grandson of the founder of North Korea who started the Korean War (1950-53) by invading South Korea. North Korea had already become a nuclear power before Kim Jong-un assumed office in 2012. The Democratic People s Republic of Korea (DPRK) or North Korea is considered a pariah state by the United States and the rest of the West. Former U.S President George W. Bush dubbed North Korea as a part of the Axis of Evil along with Iran and Iraq. North Korea does not have normal contacts with the outside world. Among its most privileged external contacts are those with China.

 

The current confrontation needs to be put in a sound historical perspective. The 1953 Armistice ending the Korean war was not followed up with a peace treaty. North Korea, China and the USSR wanted such a peace treaty. But the complex configuration of Cold war geopolitics meant that the USA was not supportive of the idea of such a peace treaty. It was because of the fact that the USA did not want to terminate its military presence in the Korean peninsula as a result of the peace treaty. Actually, the USA violated clause 13 (d) of the Armistice Agreement by placing tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea in 1956. Moreover, in 1963 the USA put up the Matador missiles in South Korea that had the range to hit both China and USSR.

 

North Korea sought help from both China and the USSR in 1962-63 to start its nuclear programme. But the request for such assistance was rejected by both China and the USSR. The US removed its nuclear weapons from South Korea in 1992 as a result of the termination of the Cold War. Then, both North Korea and South Korea reached a Basic Agreement on Reconciliation, Non-Aggression, Exchange, and Cooperation apart from issuing a Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

 

What was quite interesting about subsequent developments was that the USA was not supportive of the reconciliation between the Koreas. This stance of the USA was reflected in its resumption of joint military exercises with South Korea. Hence, North Korea threatened to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). After intense diplomatic parleys especially with Jimmy Carter s mediation North Korea in 1994 agreed to sustain its reverence to the NPT and freeze its nuclear project. The then US President Bill Clinton favoured a diplomatic approach towards North Korea.

 

The diplomatic channel between the USA and North Korea was ruptured as Clinton s successor George Bush condemned North Korea as part of an axis of evil . Then there was the withdrawal of North Korea from the NPT and resumption of its nuclear programme. China and Russia took the lead in initiative for the Six Party talks (DPRK, Republic of Korea, Japan, US, Russia, and China) and once again there was progress in giving priority to diplomatic parleys for narrowing the differences. The Six Party talks sustained even after the 2006 nuclear weapon test by North Korea. At the last round of the Six Party talks held in 2007, North Korea agreed to freeze its nuclear programme and open its full inventory to IAEA inspections. It was then agreed by the USA to remove North Korea from the list of states sponsoring terrorism. Moreover, both North Korea and Japan agreed to hold discussions to resolve their differences. North Korea launched a satellite in April 2009 despite opposition from Washington and then the Six Party talks ended without producing the desired outcomes.

 

As far as the sustained geopolitical tensions in the Korean peninsula are concerned, North Korea s nuclear programme is not the only issue. It is just one part. Because of sustained isolationist policies, North Korea has become economically weaker and now it wants to open up to the outside world. It wants an end to the war-mongering situation, normal relations with the US and Japan, and financial assistance from them. The annual South Korea-US joint military exercises are a source of discomfiture for North Korea.

 

How peace can be achieved ?

The recent positive developments are indeed encouraging. However, given the conflicting interests of the key stakeholders, there are number of imponderables which need to be addressed. Peace prospects will depend on the follow-up actions after Trump-Kim meeting, tripartite talks between US and two Koreas and four party talks involving China. If the US addresses key security concerns of North Korea and China acts as an honest and sincere broker then there can be any tangible success in promoting denuclearisation on the Korean peninsula.

 

The past records attest to the fact that North Korea is no na ve player. The South Korean Presidents had travelled to North for summit meetings on two previous occasions. There was a very positive joint declaration after the inter-Korean summit in 2007 which had almost identical goals as the recent one, including on the nuclear issue. Even after that the international peace process witnessed a miserable failure and North Korea went on to resume its nuclear weapons programme.

 

For the US, denuclearization tops the agenda. The US wants that North Korea should undertake removal of chemical and biological weapons and elimination of the ballistic missile threat. But the US will also be concerned about finding subtle ways to maintain its influence and about the future of 28,500 American troops stationed in South Korea.

 

China is an important stakeholder in the region. Its interests will also need to be factored in any proposed deal and hence the Trump administration has sought to engage China beforehand. In case China s interests are not well served, Beijing can well block the peace deal by not being an honest and sincere broker.

 

For North Korea, the concern of the survival of its authoritarian regime tops the agenda. Kim Jong-un and his predecessors have painstakingly built their prized nuclear arsenal as a guarantee to obviate the repeat of US interventions in Iraq and Libya . Hence, North Korea wants a security guarantee against any US misadventure, before it even considers giving up its nuclear arsenal. North Korea s supreme leader Kim Jong-un is successfully replaying the cycle of provocation and reconciliation pioneered by his grandfather and father . Critics say that it is na ve to believe that the North Korean regime is going to completely abandon its nuclear weapons. Other stakeholders like Japan and South Korea are equally concerned about peace in the region as a belligerent North Korean regime is also a threat to them.

The nuclear issue of North Korea has produced a criticality in the security environment in the East Asian region. Doubt about the US nuclear umbrella in the region could lead South Korea and Japan to develop their own nuclear options. That could mean the end of the American alliances with Pacific countries, a key pillar of global security. This issue needs to be amicably resolved to cure the fragile state of peace in this part of the world.

 

The US President Donald Trump has a very transactional approach to foreign policy and he is least concerned about the security and safety of its allies like Japan and South Korea from the unpredictable North Korean regime. Some experts also believe that US might only be content with North Korea removing its long-range nuclear-capable ballistic missiles removing threat to the US mainland. In this scenario the USA might not push for complete denuclearisation of North Korea. If this becomes a reality then countries like Japan and South Korea might feel cheated as they will be vulnerable to short-range nuclear-capable missiles of North Korea. A dilution of U.S. security commitments in northeast Asia will be contrary to strategic interests of Japan and South Korea. A rapprochement with North Korea could possibly lead to a broader U.S. retreat from northeast Asia.

 

The Trump administration seems least concerned about pursuing USA s regional objectives (like maintaining a stable balance of power) through the alliance system in East Asia. Brahma Chellaney notes Washington could tolerate a North Korean sub-regional nuclear arsenal if Kim dismantled his long-range nuclear capability that threatens America .If North Korea kept a residual, sub-regionally confined nuclear capability, it would reinforce Japanese and South Korean reliance on security arrangements with America . There is a probability for such a scenario as the Trump administration seeks to apply the South Africa model to North Korea. However, contradictory signals keep on coming from the USA as some noises are occasionally made about applying Libya model to North Korea. So, nothing can be said with certainty at this stage. As the U.S. remains preoccupied with North Korea, it will indirectly bolster China s territorial and maritime revisionism in the Indo-Pacific region, apart from consolidating its hold in the South China Sea. China wants to attain the pinnacle of geopolitical dominance in Asia and so it is seeking to marginalize Japan and weaken the U.S. alliance with South Korea.