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Mahesh

19/11/23 14:04 PM IST

Why are people fleeing Myanmar for Mizoram?

In News
  • 1,500 nationals of India’s neighbouring country, took refuge in Mizoram’s Champhai district recently following an intense gunfight between the Myanmar Army, and pro-democracy militias in the country’s western Chin State abutting Mizoram.
Situation in Myanmar
  • The attacks in Chin State coincidentally followed a major coordinated attack on regime forces by three ethnic armed groups – the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA) in Myanmar’s north Shan State abutting China.
  • The coordinated attacks, termed “Operation 1027” denoting the date of operations, October 27, by the Three Brotherhood Alliance as the three groups called their collective, led to serious setbacks for the junta’s forces in Shan State and brought about a sequence of other rebel attacks – including those in Chin State in the following days.
  • Scores of military outposts and bases were either abandoned by the junta forces or were captured by the rebels, with the UN stating that 60,000 people in Shan State and 2,00,000 overall in the country have been displaced following the current hostilities taking the total number of civilian displacements to more than two million since the coup.
Reason for civil war
  • In February 2021, a new junta, the State Administration Council (SAC) dominated by the Myanmar armed forces organised a military coup that ousted the civilian National League for Democracy-government and detained (and later imprisoned) its leader Aung San Suu Kyi among many other legislators and party officials.
  • The junta said that it captured power because of irregularities in the November 2020 elections, even though international observers called the elections fair.
  • The coup led to the collapse of the country’s democratic phase that opened up after the 2008 Constitution.
  • This Constitution allowed for reserving 25% of the Parliament of Myanmar for serving military officers, and control over home, border affairs and defence to be retained by the military, thereby limiting civilian powers and in essence, heralding a hybrid democratic regime.
  • The NLD was elected with a landslide victory in the 2015 elections – it had won 86% of the seats.
  • Following the coup in February 2021, a series of nationwide protests, a general strike and civil disobedience campaigns including those led by civil servants occurred, leading to what was called the “Spring Revolution”.
  • The junta reacted by attacking the resistance through a counter-insurgency strategy that targeted civilians and resistance forces by the use of state terror – the burning of entire villages, schools and small towns besides using aerial attacks against its own population
Ethnic groups response
  • Even prior to Burmese independence, various non-Bamar ethnic groups had been striving for varying degrees of federal autonomy among other arrangements vis-a-vis the Burma government.
  • Following military seizure of power in 1962, however, the junta put in place a military controlled structure across the country which soon led to several ethnic-group insurrections that lasted decades.
  • By the mid-70s, the administrative functions of the Burmese government were effectively centralised and sought to remove any ethnic distinctions in federal arrangements, leading to the intensifying of the ethnic insurgencies.
  • The ethnic armed actors, despite coming under severe attack over the years from the Tatmadaw, managed to establish autonomous enclaves in their areas.
  • With the Tatmadaw unable to defeat them entirely, it signed ceasefires with groups that allowed them to retain arms and some autonomy in minority areas, a situation that persisted during the “democratic” years after the 2008 Constitution and even today.
  • The junta’s first punitive action against ethnic armed organisations was targeted at those in Chin State in October 2021, an initiative that failed but resulted in several refugees fleeing to Mizoram and Manipur in India.
  • While New Delhi passed strictures not to open camps or provide assistance, the Mizoram government defied the Union government’s order to deport the refugees and allowed them to take shelter. The Mizo people regard those from the Chin community as ethnic brethren.
  • The influx of refugees in Manipur has heightened the ethnic conflict between the Kuki-Zo community and the majority Meiteis in the State. 
Operation 1027
  • The net effect of “Operation 1027” and its aftermath has been a greater consolidation of post-coup rebel forces in attacking junta units making the civil war into a multi-front battle.
  • The junta has promised a counter-offensive to regain areas that are crucial to cross-border trade with China and the ICG points out that “it is a well trained and well-equipped force, which has been continuously battling various insurgencies since World War II.. and its staying power cannot be underestimated”.
  • It also suggests that the “regime will double down” on scorched earth, indiscriminate bombing and shelling to gain the upper hand, leading to an even more violent phase of the civil war
International response
  • Myanmar’s closest ally, China has leverage over some of the northern ethnic armed forces that are now engaged against the junta.
  • While Beijing has publicly called for a cessation in hostilities, experts aver that the Chinese are willing to tolerate the actions as the rebels have evinced interest in reining in illicit activities such as “telecom scam centres” in the Kokang zone for example.
  • The MNDAA announced that it is planning to attack Laukkai township in Kokang and which is controlled by junta-affiliated militias and is also host to many cybercrime compounds.
  • These illicit centres have trapped thousands of Chinese nationals besides many from South East Asia in forcing them to carry out internet fraud, theft and cybercrime activities targeting Chinese citizens and others.
  • There are differences in the ASEAN grouping over the coup and the pro-democracy movement while India supports the restoration of democracy in principle but has not favoured any particular actor in the civil war.
Source- The Hindu

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