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Ecology & Environment
Mahesh

24/11/23 10:36 AM IST

Global Carbon Budget

In News
  • According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6), every 1,000 billion tonnes of CO2 in emissions causes an estimated 0.45 degrees C rise in the global surface temperature.
  • Axiomatically, limiting the rise in global temperature to a specific level means limiting cumulative carbon dioxide emission to within a carbon budget.
Global Carbon Budget
  • The term ‘global carbon budget’ refers to the maximum cumulative global anthropogenic CO2 emissions – from the pre-industrial era to when such emissions reach net- zero, resulting in limiting global warming to a given level with a given probability.
  • The remaining carbon budget indicates how much CO2 could still be emitted, from a specified time after the pre-industrial period, while keeping temperature rise to the specified limit.
  • The IPCC AR6 has shown that the world warmed by a staggering 1.07 degrees C until 2019 from pre-industrial levels, so almost four-fifths of the global carbon budget stands depleted. Only a fifth remains to meet the target set in the Paris Agreement.
  • For a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C, the U.S. would have to reach net-zero in 2025, rather than 2050; Germany by 2030 instead of 2045; and the EU-28 bloc by 2031 instead of 2050.
Cumulative global Emissions
  • According to the IPCC AR6, the developed countries have appropriated a disproportionately larger share of the global carbon budget to date.
  • The contribution of South Asia – which includes India – to historical cumulative emissions is only around 4% despite having almost 24% of the entire world population.
  • The per capita CO2-FFI (fossil fuel and industry) emissions of South Asia was just 1.7 tonnes CO2-equivalent per capita, far below North America (15.4 tonnes CO2-eq. per capita) and also significantly lower than the world average (6.6 tonnes CO2-eq. per capita).
Significance of Carbon Budget
  • The global carbon budget for a given temperature limit is a global resource, common to the entire world, but is exhaustible and limited and with only equitable methods of sharing it, consistent with the foundational principles of the UNFCCC.
  • India must recognise ‘fair share of the carbon budget’ as a strategic national resource whose reserves are depleting rapidly due to over-exploitation by developed countries.
  • In a rapidly depleting global carbon budget, if we fail to deploy resources at our command to forcefully use it as a strategic national resource, we will be shortchanged by new colonial techniques of developed countries.
  • In almost all the emissions scenarios estimated by the IPCC, the world breaches an increase of 1.5 degrees C from pre-industrial levels in the early 2030s.
  • In 2022, oil, coal and gas accounted for 30%, 27% and 23% of the world’s total energy, while solar and wind energy together contributed only 2.4%. The world is still largely powered by non-renewable energy.
  • Developed countries have tried to browbeat developing countries into accepting rapid, economy-wide changes.
  • At the COP 26 talks in Glasgow, they forced the issue of phasing down the use of coal but then backtracked by reopening coal plants across Europe after the Russia-Ukraine war created an energy crisis.
  • The developed countries have stretched the argument further by calling gas “green” and a “bridge fuel” towards their own decarbonisation efforts.
India's Stance at COP28
  • According to the NITI Aayog-U.N. Development Programme’s Multidimensional Poverty Index Report 2023 review, India has been able to lift more than 135 million poor out of poverty in less than five years (2015-2021).
  • India has also just extended food security welfare measures to more than 800 million people in the country, under the PM Garib Kalyan Ann Yojna, highlighting the magnitude of the challenge of poverty eradication after COVID-19.
  • Development is the first defence against climate change.
  • It is imperative that developing countries receive a fair and equitable share of their carbon budget alongside stronger and more fruitful commitments from developed countries – including the promised but unmet climate-specific new and additional finance.
  • India has set up the International Solar Alliance, the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, and the Global Biofuel Alliance.
  • Through the ‘Lifestyle for Environment’ (LiFE) mission, the Indian government also aims to spread awareness of good lifestyle practices and establish that sustainable lifestyles are the best way forward.
  • At COP28, India must demand a fair share of its carbon budget or equivalent reparations to bring about fairness within the global order.
  • Scientists estimate that at a conservative price of $50/tCO2-eq, developed countries’ carbon debt to the world is pegged at over $51 trillion.
  • Based on India’s historical emissions (1850-2019), it has a carbon credit equivalent of 338 GtCO2-eq., equal to around $17 trillion at $50/tCO2-eq.
  • Without finance and technology as promised in 1992 at the Rio Earth Summit, developing countries stare at an even more unfair world.
Way forward
  • We need more finance and less rhetoric from developed countries. For far too long, developed countries have had a free pass, and it is time for a new India to take them on.
Source- The Hindu

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